STRAIGHT FROM THE TRADING FLOOR
by Eric Criscuolo - Market Strategist
Published on 07/16/25
DOW 44,152 (+129), S&P 500 6,254 (+10), Russell 2000 2,219 (+14), NYSE FANG+ 14,912 (-21), ICE Brent Crude $68.42/barrel (-$0.29), Gold $3,361/oz (+$24), Bitcoin ~119.5k (+1928)
US equities were trading around unchanged in late morning trading after opening slightly higher following a cool-ish PPI print. However just after 11am the chatter around the potential removal of Fed Chair Powell reached a crescendo to rival Tool’s The Grudge (Track 1 on 2001’s Lateralus). Initial reports started to hit the wires that Trump was likely to fire Powell soon, and that while no final decision has been made, the NYT reported Trump showed a draft of a letter firing Powell to a group of congressional Republicans.
The S&P 500 quickly dropped almost 1%. The action in Treasuries and currencies was more telling. Yields were lower on the day but the short end descended further. The 2y yield fell 6bp on the reports. Meanwhile the long-end shot higher- the 10y jumped 5bp and the 30y jumped 10bp from their lows to their highs of the day. The dollar sold off.
After those initial moves, Trump spoke at a press conference and transitioned from The Grudge to Reflection (Track 11) with a hint of the intro from Sober (Undertow, Track 3). While continuing the pressure on Powell (he’s still “too late") he dialed back the rhetoric, saying he was not planning to do anything and he only talked about the concept of replacing him. This is now the TACFFC trade- Trump Always Considers Firing the Fed Chair.
The S&P 500 quickly moved higher to get back virtually all of the initial move lower and now we’re sitting here back at the highs of the day, like nothing ever happened because technically, nothing did. The equal-weight is inline while the Russell 2000 outperforms. For the sectors, Healthcare is the clear leader as JNJ popped on earnings (+6%) and biopharma trades higher (ICE Biotech up 1%). Real Estate is also trading well on the back of Prologis’ earnings. Management noted that “our leasing pipeline has reached historically high levels”. Omnicom is trading higher following its results, which were a relief after recent results from advertising peers. The rest of the sectors are trading around unchanged with a slight bias lower.
The big financials that reported this morning (GS, MS, PNC, BAC) are mixed following their earnings, though macro commentary was similar to those reporting yesterday. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan commented, “Consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose.” Chipmakers are lower after a growth warning from ASML.
Indexes and Sectors:
Like CPI yesterday, PPI came in below consensus and declined from last month, however the May data was revised higher, helping the comp. Also like the CPI, signs of upward pressure were present, with final demand goods increasing 0.3% while services fell 0.1%. 2y yields fell on the print and traded lower into the late morning Fed commotion as odds for a rate cut increased to about 60% from 55%.
Government yields:
Other Asset Classes
Overseas, the Nikkei was unchanged and JGB yields, whose upward moves have been a cause for concern, fell with 30/40y down ~8bp. China was modestly lower. A trade deal with Indonesia was announced, with a tariff set a 19% and likely higher for transshipments, along with commitments from Indonesia to buy energy, ag, and planes. European markets finished lower, fading in the second half of the day. Chipmaker ASML was down over 10% as investors looked past a strong quarter and focused on commentary on potential lack of growth in 2026. While the company expects demand to remain strong for AI, “customers are facing increasing pressures…navigating specific challenge that might effect the timing of capex.” That has taken other semi names down with it. Taiwan Semi reports tomorrow in what will be a closely watched update. Renault fell 18% on a guidance cut, taking other European car makers lower. UK CPI came in hot but the FTSE 100 is trading higher. German yields are flat to slightly lower following long-term auctions while UK yields are higher following the CPI print.
Global Indexes
Earnings
- “You’re…Not Fired”
- Stocks slightly higher after latest Powell drama
- Healthcare leading on JNJ results, most sectors around unchanged
- Yields lower, led by short-end
- PPI cools but details show some elevated prices
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US equities were trading around unchanged in late morning trading after opening slightly higher following a cool-ish PPI print. However just after 11am the chatter around the potential removal of Fed Chair Powell reached a crescendo to rival Tool’s The Grudge (Track 1 on 2001’s Lateralus). Initial reports started to hit the wires that Trump was likely to fire Powell soon, and that while no final decision has been made, the NYT reported Trump showed a draft of a letter firing Powell to a group of congressional Republicans.
The S&P 500 quickly dropped almost 1%. The action in Treasuries and currencies was more telling. Yields were lower on the day but the short end descended further. The 2y yield fell 6bp on the reports. Meanwhile the long-end shot higher- the 10y jumped 5bp and the 30y jumped 10bp from their lows to their highs of the day. The dollar sold off.
After those initial moves, Trump spoke at a press conference and transitioned from The Grudge to Reflection (Track 11) with a hint of the intro from Sober (Undertow, Track 3). While continuing the pressure on Powell (he’s still “too late") he dialed back the rhetoric, saying he was not planning to do anything and he only talked about the concept of replacing him. This is now the TACFFC trade- Trump Always Considers Firing the Fed Chair.
The S&P 500 quickly moved higher to get back virtually all of the initial move lower and now we’re sitting here back at the highs of the day, like nothing ever happened because technically, nothing did. The equal-weight is inline while the Russell 2000 outperforms. For the sectors, Healthcare is the clear leader as JNJ popped on earnings (+6%) and biopharma trades higher (ICE Biotech up 1%). Real Estate is also trading well on the back of Prologis’ earnings. Management noted that “our leasing pipeline has reached historically high levels”. Omnicom is trading higher following its results, which were a relief after recent results from advertising peers. The rest of the sectors are trading around unchanged with a slight bias lower.
The big financials that reported this morning (GS, MS, PNC, BAC) are mixed following their earnings, though macro commentary was similar to those reporting yesterday. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan commented, “Consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose.” Chipmakers are lower after a growth warning from ASML.
Indexes and Sectors:
Like CPI yesterday, PPI came in below consensus and declined from last month, however the May data was revised higher, helping the comp. Also like the CPI, signs of upward pressure were present, with final demand goods increasing 0.3% while services fell 0.1%. 2y yields fell on the print and traded lower into the late morning Fed commotion as odds for a rate cut increased to about 60% from 55%.
Government yields:
- US 2yr -6bps to 3.89%, 5yr -6bps to 3.99%, 10yr -3bps to 4.46%, 30yr +0bps to 5.03%
- USD index: -$0.41 to $97.91
Other Asset Classes
Overseas, the Nikkei was unchanged and JGB yields, whose upward moves have been a cause for concern, fell with 30/40y down ~8bp. China was modestly lower. A trade deal with Indonesia was announced, with a tariff set a 19% and likely higher for transshipments, along with commitments from Indonesia to buy energy, ag, and planes. European markets finished lower, fading in the second half of the day. Chipmaker ASML was down over 10% as investors looked past a strong quarter and focused on commentary on potential lack of growth in 2026. While the company expects demand to remain strong for AI, “customers are facing increasing pressures…navigating specific challenge that might effect the timing of capex.” That has taken other semi names down with it. Taiwan Semi reports tomorrow in what will be a closely watched update. Renault fell 18% on a guidance cut, taking other European car makers lower. UK CPI came in hot but the FTSE 100 is trading higher. German yields are flat to slightly lower following long-term auctions while UK yields are higher following the CPI print.
Global Indexes
Earnings
- After the Close (Wed): AIR, AA, FR, HOMB, KMI, REXR, SLG, SNV, UAL
- Before the Open (Thrs): ABT, CTAS, CFG, ELV, GE, IIIN, MAN, MMC, NVS, OFG, PEP, SNA, TRV, TSM, USB, WBS
- After the Close (Thrs): CS, FNB, IBKR, MCB, NFLX, WAL
- US:
- MBA mortgage apps: -11.8% vs. prior 9.4%
- Refis: -7.4% vs prior 9.2%
- PPI m.m / y.y: 0.0% / 2.3% vs. 0.2% / 2.5% cons., prior 0.3% / 2.7%
- Core m.m / y.y: 0.0% / 2.6% vs. 0.2% / 2.7% cons., prior 0.4% / 3.2%
- Industrial Production m.m: 0.3% vs. 0.1% cons., prior 0.0%
- Manufacturing Production m.m: 0.1% vs. 0.0% cons., prior 0.3%
- Fed Speakers: Hammack, Barr
- 2:00pm Biege Book
- MBA mortgage apps: -11.8% vs. prior 9.4%
- Global
- Japan Tankan Survey: 7 vs. prior 6
- South Korea: Export Prices y.y: -4.5% vs. prior -2.6%
- UK CPI yy: 3.6% vs. 3.4% cons., prior 3.4%
- Indonesia rate decision: Cut 25bp as expected
- EU Trade Balance: €16.2B vs. prior €11.1B
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